The probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is the maximum possible depth of precipitation, which could occurs in a region. The PMP has so many influences on designing of dam weirs and storage constructions and water distribution. Therefore, the storage constructions and water distribution must design like they can stand maximum flood without any impairment. The synoptical (convergence) and statistical analysis are two general methods for the PMP estimation. The statistical or Hershfield method is used when rainfall quantities are available and sufficient. There is worth exactness in convergence method because of using more parameters for PMP estimation. In this' paper, by using of Meteorology Organization research which has estimated PMP for Khaf and Khalshour basins by convergence method and concerning 24h PMP in rainguage stations basin, k; was estimated for whole of the area. The 24h PMP data were received from synoptic and climatology stations in Khorasan Razavi province. Then PMP was estimated by first and second Hershfield methods. The results show that there are many differences between them and the Hershfield's second method estimates PMP close to the. convergence estimations.

Probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is the maximum amount of rainfall which theoretically is supposed to fall on a specified point or region. In this paper two statistical methods of Hershfield (in two different approaches of standard and revised, as a point prediction) and multi-station (as a regional method) is compared for 33 raingage stations located in the Atrak watershed in north-eastern Iran. Extreme value type 1 and its two alternatives of transformed and cut-off distribution functions, which can handle a finite limit for rainfall as the return period increases without bound, was adopted for the multi-station approach. There were unrealistic results for the standard approach of the Hershfield method. Varions of dimensionless ratio of PMP for revised approach of Hershfield to the maximum amount of daily rainfall was in good harmony with other studies conducted in vast different climatological regions. The regional PMP by multi-station method were smaller than point PMPs for just 7 stations. This result may not be uncorrect, yet we proceeded for the first time in a reverse algorithm and calibrated the behaviour of the limited reduced variate parameter for the region. The resulting PMP was smaller than just one station. So it seems that the regional PMP may be equal to the maximum of the point PMPs of revised Hershfield method. This result is just drawn for only one region and should be confirmed by other researches.

Probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is one of the most important components for water resources management. In this study, 24-hour probable maximum precipitation (PMP24) was estimated and compared with Hershfield standard and modified and physical approaches in Bushehr province. Among the weather stations of Bushehr province, seven synoptic stations were selected. The data used to include 24-hour precipitation, dew point temperature, wind speed, station pressure, and sea-level pressure during 1968-2018 years. The results showed that in the Hershfield standard, the frequency factor and the PMP24 values in the studied stations were estimated in the range of 16. 2-17. 9 and 433. 5-880. 6 mm, respectively. Similarly, in the Hershfield modified, these values were estimated in the studied stations in the range of 2. 39-44. 64 and 103. 61-23. 4 mm, respectively. The regional PMP24 values for both the Hershfield standard and modified methods and physical approaches were estimated 660. 5, 181. 4, and 139. 9 mm, respectively. In general, considering the physical characteristics of the air mass in the physical approach, the use of this approach is proposed to reduce uncertainty. If the Hershfield standard method is used, the design and construction costs increase unnecessarily.

The probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is the greatest depth of precipitation for a given duration that is physically possible over a given size storm area at a particular geographical location at a certain time of the year. In this study a physically based method was compared with a statistical procedure to calculate PMP in the southwest arid regions of Iran. In order to estimate PMP using a physically or meteorologically oriented method, such climatological elements as precipitation, dew point temperature, and wind speed were studied in seven synoptic stations in the region. Synoptic maps of appropriate time scales were also studied. Then widespread and severe storms with various durations were selected and Depth-Area-Duration (DAD) curves for all the selected storms extracted. Using the physical method, PMP estimations were obtained at different locations and then the results applied to areas of 1000, 5000 and 10, 000 km2. PMP estimations were also obtained through statistical analysis of the series of annual maximum 24 hour precipitations. The result showed that the values obtained through statistical procedures are more than two times those of meteorological method, for all the stations. Comparison of estimates indicated that least difference between two methods belongs to Abadan and the most difference to Bushehr, the magnitude of PMP in physical method is 39.2 and 22.8 percent of statistical method, respectively. Thus using statistical method for an estimation of PMP in the region leads to unacceptable consequences for a construction of water structures.

One of the most important problems in Hydrometeorology is the estimation of reliable Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) for different durations that are expected to occur over a point or an area. A statistical method for estimating PMP values was developed by Hershfield based on frequency equation. Many researches had been done on frequency factor in this method but all of them lead to high estimation of PMP. In this paper the frequency factor of Hershfield method is analyzed based on local data in Ghareh Ghum watershed with 44491 Ian area. Using L-Moment method confums the homogeneity of 57 stations in investigated watershed. Based on this procedure, the frequency factor of Hershfield equation was found to be 7.63. The approximated frequency factor is in accordance with corresponding researches in Atrak watershed and Malaysia. Finally a generalized map was prepared for showing the spatial distribution of 24 h Probable maximum precipitation.

In this study, the impact of climate change on 24-h probable maximum precipitation (PMP24) was investigated in a part of Qareh-Su basin located in Golestan province, northern Iran. For this purpose, the daily and hourly climatic data during years 1987– 2017 were applied. In order to generate future data, the outputs of CanESM2 model as a general circulation model (GCM) were used in two near and far future periods under three emission scenarios including optimistic (RCP 2. 6), middle (RCP 4. 5) and pessimistic (RCP 8. 5) and statistical downscaling model (SDSM). The PMP24 values were estimated using physical, Hershfield standard and revised methods in the baseline and future periods under the three scenarios. The PMP24 value was estimated 421 mm for the baseline period, using Hershfield standard method. This value was obtained respectively under the three RCP scenarios as 202, 228, and 213, for the near future and 216, 201, and 230 mm for the far future. The result of Hershfield revised method was 230 mm for the baseline period. The PMP24 values under the three scenarios were calculated as 81, 85, and 76 mm for the near future, and 83, 80, and 79 mm for the far future, respectively. The PMP24 resulted from physical method was 143 mm for the baseline period and 98, 105, and 109 for the near future, and 129, 122, and 126 mm for the far future period, respectively. The results showed that the PMP24 values tend to decrease at the rate of 18-21% in the physical method, 49% in the Hershfield standard method and 65% in the Hershfield revised method. Overall, the PMP24 values tend to decrease in the future and the rate of decrease in the near future was more than the rate of the far future. The spatial distribution maps of PMP24 in the baseline and the future periods showed that the PMP24 values decreased from west to east. Comparison of these values indicated that PMP values obtained from physical method were closer to the actual precipitation of basin and this method obtains more accurate PMP estimates in the study area.

Objective: People who have higher social health can more successfully deal with the challenges and ups and downs of playing key social roles and participate more in collective activities and prevent social deviations and anomalies. In this regard, foresight and the development of a forward-looking strategy model by the media can play an important role in promoting the social health of their audience (individuals).Method: This research has been done qualitatively and quantitatively. In the qualitative phase, content analysis and Q methods were used, and in the quantitative phase, factor analysis was used to analyze the Q method data.Results: The content analysis of the media in this study showed that the most media production in the field of social deviations with 576 cases and the lowest media production in the field of violence with 237 cases. The field of social quality with 485 and the field of social issues with 312 cases are in the second and third ranks. A small questionnaire was made and based on it, the desired model was designed using PLS software. Conclusion: This model showed that the function of media is effective in promoting social health of society and can have the greatest impact on improving quality of life, reducing violence, reducing social deviations and social issues.

One of the obvious reasons for most disorders in network service provisioning is network path congestion. Congestion avoidance in today's networks is too costly and sometimes impossible. With the introduction of SDN, centralizing the equipment's control plane has become possible. This paper presents an enhanced method named ESV-DBRA to avoid congestion in multi-tenant SDN networks. At first, ESV-DBRA monitors the traffic load and delay of all network paths for each tenant individually. Then, by merging the parameters obtained from the monitoring, the Service Level Agreements (SLA), and a novel proposed cost function, it calculates the cost of the network paths per tenant. As a result, traffic for each tenant is routed through the path/paths at the lowest possible cost from the tenant's perspective. Next, the bandwidth quotas will be calculated and assigned to the tenants over their optimal routes. Afterward, whenever congestion is likely to occur in a path, ESV-DBRA automatically changes the route or bandwidth of the tenants' traffic related to this path to avoid congestion. Related algorithms are also proposed.Eventually, simulations show that the proposed method effectively increases bandwidth utilization by 10.76%.